Those PRIME TIME Eagles (analysis inside!)

[buzzwordsports]

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia 9:05 PM EST

Philadelphia -3 over Tampa Bay (4.5 Units)

Primetime and Philly seem to go together better than a Philly soft pretzel with mustard, and when last season's NFC Championship participants meet up again to start off their respective seasons, we don't expect that trend to change... after all, in their last nine primetime games, the Eagles are an amazing 9-0 SU and ATS, winning eight of the nine games by at LEAST 13 points, and all of them by an combined score of 250-83 (27.8 to 9.2)... last year alone, the Birds crushed the Falcons, 49ers, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys at night by a combined 139 to 36 score... and with the grand opening of Lincoln Financial Field thrown on top of the luster of yet another primetime game (as well as one against a hated Bucs team that ended their season last season), the intensity will be at a feverish pitch in Philadelphia tonight...

Congrats go out to the Bucs on last season's Super Bowl championship, but Tampa Bay is likely to find out how tough the road to repeating is in the NFL when they face an Eagles team that has been superb in following up poor performances... after a SU loss, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last twelve games under Andy Reid... all in all, after a non-covering effort, the Birds have gone on to cover in their next contest at a 10-4 ATS rate... and after a SU loss, the Eagles have soared to an 15-3-1 ATS record in their subsequent game... additionally, in a direct revenge situation (facing the same team after a SU loss the last time they faced), the Eagles are an exceptional 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU), outscoring their opponents by a combined 62 points (holding five of the six opponents to 9 points or less), and beating the spread by an exceptional 12.4 points per game... toss in the fact that the Eagles allowed over 20 points to the Bucs in their season finale last season, and you have yet another situation in which Andy Reid has thrived, as the Burds have now gone a whopping 16-3-1 ATS in their next game after allowing 20+ points...

Prior to the NFC Championship debacle, where the Eagles just fell apart after the infamous Joe Jurevicious 73-yard catch and run that pushed all momentum towards Tampa, the Eagles had owned the Bucs over the past several seasons, with four straight wins and covers where they outscored Tampa by an 82-35 margin, including three straight home wins where the Eagles scored at least 20 points on each occasion while holding the Bucs to 10 points or less each time... with a fully healthy Donovan McNabb back at the helm (instead of the somewhat tentative playoff version who struggled in both postseason contests after returning from injury), we see the Eagles returning back to form in this contest...

Tampa Bay is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games as a dog of four points or less, including an 0-3 mark against the Eagles in Philly, while the Eagles are 9-3-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 5, including a 5-2-2 mark at home... The Bucs haven't scored more than 13 points in any of their last three games against the Eagles... throw on the fact that the Eagles are 9-1 in the first of back-to-back home games, and this looks to be a great game to back the Eagles... the Eagles have always thrived against their own conference, going 28-11 ATS against the NFC in their last 39 games, including a whopping 14-3 ATS in their last seventeen (and 6-1 SU/ATS as a home favorite against the NFC last season)... furthermore, the Eagles are now 29-14 ATS since 1992 against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or more, and a very strong 6-1 when Andy Reid has more than seven days to prepare for an opponent... additionally, while this game holds immense meaning for Philadelphia as they seek revenge for their embarrassing loss in the NFC Championship game, Tampa Bay needs to be somewhat focused upon the fact that their next two games are against 1-0 division rivals Carolina and Atlanta - and in road games prior to a divisional tilt, the Bucs are just 2-5 SU/ATS in their last seven contests... add it all up, and we see more than enough reasons to go with the Birds here, as they get their satisfactory revenge from last season's crushing season-ending loss...

FINAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 23, TAMPA BAY 14

 

[BigTwelveFan]

Damn Buzz Word,

That's a lot of good Sh*t you have posted there. I'm glad I took the birds tonight. Gotta say I agree with the pick and the trends. I only home someone out there takes the Bucs so we don't get jinxed.

Best of luck tonight!

BTF

 

[SrMuny]

I got the BUCS

 

[wilheim]

Lots of old meaningless trends. It comes down to the two teams on the field tonight and their coaching staffs. Hard to give the Bucs points tonight, anywhere in this league based on that premise. What are the linemakers saying? Philly is a better team? No, the 3 now heading towards 2.5 is a number that will get two way action. When you compare the teams the Bucs are better, not by a lot, but still better. I look for the Bucs to win by a Martin Gramatica field goal.

wil.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

It's nice to have the write-ups Buzz. I will follow the advice of very few people without one.

Thanks for going through the effort.

 

[richdude57]

I SEEN A LOT OF ACTION ON THE BUCS JUST LIKE OAK.ALTHOUGH U NEVER KNOW,BUT IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A TRAP.MY SON SAID TO ME,DAD HOW CAN U NOT TAKE TAMPA GETTING PTS.? AND HE IS RIGHT.THATS Y I AM GOING TO

DA MAN AND BET PHILA.GLT ALL EAGLE BETTERS.

THE DUDE >}~

 

[wilheim]

Tampa Bay on Money line plus 128 at Pinnacle.

When you talk about the Bucs you have to talk Defense. No reason to think the D. that was the best in NFL last year (196 points allowed) will tail off this year. MLB Quarles out, but 4th year back-up Nate Webster capable, in fact has his one NFL start vs. Eagles. Expect usual big games from Brooks, Rice, Sapp et al. On offense Brad Johnson needs to continue to play a low tournover controlled passing game. RB Pittman a ? with off season problems, but newly acquired Thomas Jones fills in fine. The same big 3 recievers are back. The wild card here is Mike Alstott, he gives the Bucs Offense that something extra a lot of teams do not have. On the other side of the ball the Eagles return with Donavan McNabb, and a late to camp Deuce Staley, they will challange Bucs D. but pressure on McNabb has been known to cause tournovers. On defense the Eagles are sure to miss Hugh Douglas, his loss takes the Philly defense down a notch. Bottom line look for Bucs PK Gramatica to be the difference in an outright Bucs win. IMHO.

wil.

 

[wilheim]

You don't win the Super Bowl in a blowout by accident.


wil.

 

[THEGAME9000]

BUZZ,
keep writing them up!
i think that was an excellent write-up and i also feel you are going to be right more than wrong.
it is making selecting a side alot easier(no matter which way you pick) for people to make thier own mind up on a game when there are cats like yourself who do quality prep work on a game and post it for the world to read.
there is always something to be learned from somebody who takes the time to do the homework.
tough luck today, you'll kill'em next week.

kudos

GAME.

 

[wilheim]

Sorry but that write up was total bull, and most likely a cut and paste. Old trends just don't mean much anymore. Teams change more than ever from year to year. I appreciate a write up also, just not one that does'nt address real time facts. GL. this season.

wil.

 

[THEGAME9000]

wil, if you check my "doin research" thread you'll understand how i used his write up and why i appreciated it.
it just sent up an old flag with me.

GAME.